How does Indian intelligence view Bangladesh? And is it a player in the current crisis?

 This is an old article by Idris Kamal who says: Creating Chaos in Dhaka Is Cheaper for India Than Confronting China in Lalmonirhat and the Bay of Bengal

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Idris Kamal

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For decades, Bangladesh was treated as India’s quiet backyard -- a buffer, a compliant transit corridor, a diplomatic underling. But that perception is now undergoing a tectonic shift in India’s security and strategic circles.

According to recent Indian intelligence assessments, Bangladesh, once dismissed as geopolitically meek, is emerging as a central player in a powerful China-Pakistan-Bangladesh axis that could destabilize India’s northeastern frontier and compromise its naval supremacy in the Bay of Bengal.

The Revival of Lalmonirhat: Strategic Red Flag

The epicenter of Indian anxiety? A dormant WWII-era airbase in Lalmonirhat, northern Bangladesh -- originally built by the British as a forward base. After independence, when the Bangladesh Air Force once considered establishing its headquarters at Lalmonirhat, RAW reportedly persuaded the then-Bangladeshi government to abandon the idea, citing India’s vulnerability around the narrow Siliguri Corridor -- the 22 km-wide "Chicken’s Neck" linking mainland India to its northeast.

Following Professor Yunus’s high-profile visit to Beijing -- made aboard a special flight sent by President Xi -- relations between China and Bangladesh have visibly warmed. Bangladeshi media has since been abuzz with speculation about a potential purchase of J-10C fighter jets, especially in the aftermath of the recent India-Pakistan standoff, where China-backed platforms gained attention.

Against this backdrop, Indian press and analysts, citing intelligence sources, claim that China -- using Pakistan as a proxy -- is actively working to revive the Lalmonirhat airbase as a dual-use strategic facility. Located near one of India’s most sensitive chokepoints, the Siliguri Corridor, the airbase’s resurrection is seen in New Delhi as a direct encroachment into its strategic underbelly.

This isn’t merely about development aid or connectivity. From India’s perspective, it’s about military denial, persistent aerial surveillance, and the possible establishment of an electronic warfare hub just across its border.

The Chinese Playbook: Air Denial and Maritime Eyes

Chinese objectives, as per the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), are surgical and layered:

Air Denial Operations: China aims to create an anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) zone around India’s Hasimara, Bagdogra, and Panagarh airbases using Bangladeshi territory. This includes the deployment of CH-5 radar systems, Wing Loong II drones, and KJ-500 early warning aircraft at Lalmonirhat. The goal isn’t to dominate the skies but to deny India the ability to fly unseen over its own Northeast.

Strategic Surveillance: By establishing a line-of-sight radar and drone coverage from Lalmonirhat, China can monitor Indian aerial operations in real-time. India’s prized Rafale squadron in Hasimara, meant to project deterrence over the Siliguri corridor, could be visibly tracked by Chinese radar systems within seconds of takeoff.

PLA's Digital Arm: The deployment of the PLA Strategic Support Force (SSF) to Bangladesh is also under scrutiny. These units specialize in cyber, electronic, and space warfare, enabling persistent electronic surveillance of Indian air movements.

Times Now has reported that the Indian Army has raised concerns about Chinese surveillance UAVs in northern Bangladesh following unusual radar activity near Siliguri.

 

Pakistan's Shadow Engineers

More alarming to Indian observers is the reported involvement of Pakistani contractors acting as Chinese proxies. Intelligence inputs flagged the presence of engineers from:

• Frontier Works Organization (FWO)
• National Logistics Cell (NLC)
• Descon Engineering

These entities, which Indian authorities claim to be ISI fronts, have allegedly been surveying Lalmonirhat under the guise of civil-military infrastructure work. Indian security analysts believe this tri-national cooperation echoes CPEC-like dual-use infrastructure strategies.

The Hindustan Times, among other Indian outlets, has reported ISI-linked engineers spotted near Rangpur in coordination with Chinese BRI advisors.

 

From Air to Sea: The Bay of Bengal Gambit

RAW believes China’s ambitions aren’t limited to airspace. The intelligence agency outlines a plan to use Lalmonirhat to launch Y-8 maritime surveillance aircraft and long-endurance UAVs to track Indian naval activity across Visakhapatnam, Haldia, and Paradip ports.

Here’s the operational logic:

• Drones from Lalmonirhat relay real-time data on Indian naval deployments.
• That data is transmitted directly to Type 039 and Type 093 Chinese submarines parked near Myanmar’s coast.
• These submarines, operating stealthily in the Bay of Bengal, use this intel to undermine India’s Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA).

This could neutralize years of Indian Navy investment in Maritime Situational Awareness (MSA) across the Bay, jeopardizing regional dominance.

The Print cites Indian Navy sources warning of increased Chinese undersea activity near Andaman waters in correlation with aerial drones from northern Bangladesh.

 

The Grand Strategy: Bleed the Northeast, Watch the Sea

Put together, the Indian intel paints a picture that’s disturbing to its generals:

• Lalmonirhat = Eye in the sky + Ear to the ground
• Pakistani Contractors = Plausible deniability + Expertise in destabilization
• China’s Endgame = Dual containment: air denial in the Northeast, sea denial in the Bay

And it all hinges on Bangladesh.

Once dismissed as docile, Bangladesh is now seen as a geostrategic pivot in the Indo-Pacific equation. But Delhi’s playbook goes far beyond radar arrays and submarine shadows. The recent political upheaval in Dhaka -- marked by the non-cooperation of a major political party and a segment of the military -- is widely perceived within Bangladesh as being influenced by Indian maneuvering.

The growing suspicion is that Delhi is attempting to reassert control through loyal proxies, using the pretext of constitutional order. The goal? To preemptively neutralize RAW’s growing concerns over Lalmonirhat and the broader insecurities it poses for India’s northeastern flank.

If Delhi succeeds in orchestrating the return of old loyalists -- or installing new allies through hastily arranged quick elections -- the consequences for Bangladesh could be severe. It could mean a reversion to Hindutva dominance over a Muslim-majority country, masked under the rhetoric of countering Islamism. The irony? India itself has been projecting religious majoritarianism while warning others against extremism.

However, under the leadership of Professor Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh has managed to reposition itself as a progressive, non-extremist, rights-based state. This has won Dhaka growing international support from the UN, US, UK, and EU -- something Delhi finds increasingly difficult to circumvent through old-school diplomacy or coercion.

But should India succeed in imposing its will through embedded allies, RAW’s tactics are likely to escalate -- not just in surveillance, but in domestic governance manipulation, digital control, and suppression of dissent, all masked under “regional security cooperation.”

The Verdict

Whether India responds with diplomacy, deterrence, or dirty tricks, one thing is clear:

The age of taking Bangladesh for granted is over.