The Arakan Army: A Growing Security Threat To Bangladesh
As the Civil war in Myanmar
intensifies, the Arakan Army (AA) has emerged as a formidable force against
Myanmar military in Rakhine State. Recent escalation in hostilities between the
rebel group and the military in Rakhine has not only disrupted Junta’s hold in
the region but also poses serious security threats to Bangladesh. Stray Mortar
shelling in Bangladesh’s bordering regions included, last month, AA rebels even kidnapped innocent
fishermen from the Naf river that Bangladesh shares with Myanmar. AA’s
activities are becoming a growing concern for Bangladesh especially considering
that Bangladesh has consistently responded with patience and dignity to the
numerous provocations and challenges posed by Myanmar.
On
October 27, 2023, the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BTA), composed of the Arakan Army, Myanmar National
Democratic Alliance Army, and Ta’ang National Liberation Army and numbering
some 15,000 fighters, launched Operation 1027, an anti-SAC offensive in Shan
State. The coalition had been preparing for this offensive for years,
according to local interlocutors, and its forces were equipped with advanced
weapons, including drones acquired on foreign markets.
The
Arakan Army, founded in 2009, initially aimed at gaining greater autonomy for
the Rakhine people. Since the offensive last October, it has actually steered
close to its goal and undoubtedly has become one of the strongest pillars
challenging the Myanmar junta in the ongoing civil war. The rebel group has taken control of more than half the Rakhine
State – nine of its 17 townships. They have seized key territories in the
neighbouring Chin state as well. The AA’s tactical prowess and strategic
territorial gains have drawn the attention of regional stakeholders, including Bangladesh.
The proximity of AA operations to this border has heightened security concerns
for Bangladesh, as cross-border skirmishes and the potential for infiltration
increase.
The Escalation of Conflict in
the borders of Bangladesh
On
May 22, Arakan Army launched a large-scale attack on Maungdaw town in
northwestern Rakhine State near the border with Bangladesh. If the Arakan Army
can seize Maungdaw, only one town in northern Rakhine will remain under the
regime’s control: Sittwe, the state’s capital. Capturing Maungdaw will also
give the Arakan Army control over the 270-km border with Bangladesh. That
possibility does not seem far-fetched as the group has captured more than 10 junta camps in Rakhine
State’s Maungdaw in less than two weeks, killing about 200 junta troops.
Direct Security Implications
for Bangladesh
The
AA’s intensified activities near the border areas in southeastern Bangladesh,
particularly in Bandarban and Cox’s Bazar, have experienced stray gunfire,
mortar shelling, and airstrikes from Myanmar forces. These incidents have not only caused casualties among Bangladeshi civilians
but have also forced thousands to flee their homes, creating a humanitarian
crisis.
Just
this month, ferry services on the Teknaf-Saint Martin route have been suspended
since 6th June
due to firing from Myanmar. This had caused a massive food shortage in the region
endangering lives of more than 10000 residents. Often shots were fired at trawlers and boats to Saint Martin’s. One
of such trawlers was carrying Bangladeshi election officials. Arakan
Army members are believed to have fired the shots.
The
conflict has also led to an influx of displaced persons, including Myanmar
Border Guard Police personnel, into Bangladesh. More than 752 fleeing junta personnel and their families have
been repatriated since mid-February after the AA launched offensives near
Rakhine’s international border. This sudden influx strains security for
Bangladesh-Myanmar border which is already a contested place due to Myanmar
people trying to enter the country illegally especially the Rohingya community still
living in Myanmar.
Bangladesh’s
internal security is already complicated as it is with the existence of over a
million Rohingya refugees already residing in camps in Bangladesh. The
potential for further displacement due to ongoing violence in Rakhine and Chin
states remains high, posing a continuous threat to Bangladesh’s border security
and humanitarian stability.
Broader concerns if Arakan army
controls Rakhine
Beyond the immediate
border incidents, the presence of the AA near Bangladesh raises broader
security concerns. The AA’s control over large swathes of territory in Rakhine
State, including strategic border areas, increases the risk of arms smuggling,
human trafficking, and other illicit activities. Bangladesh geography puts it at the heart of three major Asian drug trade
routes: the Golden Wedge, the Golden Triangle and the Golden
Crescent. This, unfortunately, makes the country a lucrative transit for the
region’s drugs, especially from Myanmar and India, undermining Bangladesh’s
internal security.
Moreover, the AA’s
conflict with the Myanmar military has the potential to draw in other armed
groups and create a broader insurgency landscape. This could lead to a
spillover of violence into Bangladesh, exacerbating the security challenges.
The presence of armed militants in close proximity to Bangladeshi territory
necessitates a robust security response to prevent infiltration and maintain
regional stability.
What should be the future?
The AA had previously assured that they will cooperate regarding border
stability issues with neighbouring countries. These words seem hollow when they
still have not apologized for the deaths Bangladeshi civilians caused by their
fighting. The further show of utmost disrespect to Bangladesh’s neutrality by
kidnapping Bangladeshi fishermen fishing, firing at Bangladeshi trawlers within
the borders of their own country is totally inexcusable.
Bangladesh and the Bay of
Bengal are two routes for Arakan or the Rakhine state’s contact with the
outside world. Due to the location of Saint Martin’s, most of the north Bay of
Bengal is within Bangladesh’s maritime boundary. And so, for the future growth
of Rakhine state, creating a friendly relationship with Bangladesh should be
priority for the Arakan Army-not provoking the country.
As this situation evolves,
Dhaka must remain vigilant and proactive in managing the implications of the
AA’s activities to safeguard its national security and humanitarian interests.
Diplomatic engagement and cooperation among the parties is essential to ensure
the security and stability of Bangladesh.
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