Disingenuous remarks that matter in a digital world By Habib Siddiqui

Last week, a friend of mine shared a tweet from Aparna Sen, a Bengali-speaking Indian actress and movie director. She had tweeted: “What has happened to Bangladesh? Is it turning into Pakistan? One keeps reading and hearing about Bangladeshi Hindus being tortured and killed! Stop! Please stop! The whole planet is becoming such a violent place!”

Aparna Sen is a Bengali speaking Hindu who lives in India. As such, it is understandable that she was upset with the recent communal tension in Bangladesh when Islam's Holy Book - the Qur'an - was desecrated in some Hindu temples, being left over at the feet of Hindu idols by some miscreants during the Durga Puja, a popular Hindu festival. Reportedly, some Hindu mandirs were later attacked by some angry Muslims. Five Muslims were shot dead by police, a fact obfuscated in media reports in India to polarize public opinion against Bangladesh. 

Deploying the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), hundreds of Muslims were arrested in a nationwide swoop inside Bangladesh. Most notably, the two “foot soldiers”, Iqbal Hussain and Saikat Mandal, who placed the holy Qur’an at the feet of Hindu goddess Durga and telecast it live on Facebook respectively, to whip up religious passions were hunted down using CCTV footage. The duo’s handlers are yet to be caught, though.

As I noted elsewhere, these sacrilegious acts surely could not have been planned by either any God-fearing Muslim or any sane Hindu. In all likelihood, such abhorrible acts were planned by individuals as part of a wider conspiracy to create tension between the otherwise peaceful religious communities inside Bangladesh. 

Truly, Bangladesh has been an oasis of religious harmony – by no means a perfect score though – in a region that has seen some of the worst forms of intolerance and bigotry in countries like India, Myanmar and Sri Lanka.  Unlike her neighbors, where religious bigots rule, Bangladesh is ruled by a highly secular political party (the Awami League) that has often been accused of appeasing and empathizing with the minority causes more than those of its Muslim majority.

So, my question to solving the case around the true culprits is: who benefits from fomenting tensions inside Bangladesh? If one were to remove the faithful adherents of Islam and Hinduism as the perpetrators, suspicion shifts to the foreign agents like the RAW of India. After all, the RAW and Modi's Indian Government have been unhappy with the turn of events in the geo-political tug-of-war in which Bangladesh is perceived to be more inclined towards China than the next-door India. The pro-China tilt of Bangladesh is an outcome that is unacceptable to India for its not-too-subtle hegemonic goal in South Asia. 

The relationship between the two neighbors has deteriorated considerably for a number of years, esp. in recent years in which the Government of Bangladesh did not find its counterpart in India to be sincere enough  in easing border tensions and trade relations. Hundreds of Bangladeshi farmers and cattle-herders continue to be killed, tortured and abducted by India’s trigger-happy Border Security Force (BSF) inside the Bangladesh territory on suspicion that they have crossed into India; the share of major international rivers has never been fair to the lower riparian Bangladesh, whose vast territories get flooded during the monsoon season and remain inarable and unnavigable during the dry seasons. On the other hand, the waterways inside Bangladesh, including major seaports have all been opened up to India for easy transfer of goods to its north-eastern states that are almost landlocked. Even the roads and highways inside Bangladesh are opened up almost toll-free for using Bangladesh as a corridor to transporting goods and services to those north-eastern states. And yet, to the great dismay and frustration of her people, the Hasina-government has gotten nothing in reciprocity out of such generous concessions and overtures to Modi's India. 

Worse yet, Bengali-speaking Muslims are pushed out of India to Bangladesh under the false pretext that they are intruders. Conveniently forgotten by Indian government is the mere fact that during the British rule of India, its inhabitants comprising Muslims, Buddhists and Hindus lived together and moved and settled freely wherever they liked or where their jobs had taken them to generate income or livelihood for their family members. So, when the Muslims of the border territories like Assam, in spite of having official proofs and decades of existence, predating the Pakistan-India Partition of 1947, are depicted wrongfully as illegals inside Modi's India, it is like backstabbing by a mendacious neighbor who has never abandoned its evil self.

India's controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), National Register of Citizens (NRC), National Population Register (NPR) and other laws, aimed at denying citizenship to millions of Muslims living inside India are bigotry-ridden, and are simply criminal and unlawful. Let’s also not forget India’s revocation of the Article 370 that took away the special status of Muslim-majority Kashmir. Such irresponsible acts of the Hindutvadi BJP government, epitomizing intolerance and bigotry, have soured the relationship beyond repair, or so it seems, between the two governments.

Let's not forget also the almost regular lynching of Muslims inside India under the pretext of protecting the cow. Muslim peasants and cow-herders have been killed with impunity, reminiscent of the dark days of Hitler and Mussolini’s fascism. The Indian police and the BSF have often been a willing party to the abuse, torture and crimes against Indian Muslims. No Hindu vigilante from a knife-wielding mob to the police to the Border Security Force has yet been punished in Modi’s India for such crimes. India’s utter negligence to punish Hindutvadi criminals says that they don’t value Muslim life and property, and are, thus, not serious about peaceful co-existence with its non-Hindu neighbors.

No wonder, outside a very small number of sycophants and paid agents, BJP-ruled India is viewed very unfavorably inside Bangladesh by its inhabitants, esp. the Muslims, who find themselves surrounded by hostile neighbors. But such highly emotive matters of grave concern have not dissuaded the Indian agents who dream of an Akhand Bharat  (Undivided India) to conspiring against Bangladesh.

Consider a video clip that is going viral on social media that shows Gobinda Chandra Pramanik, leader of Bangladesh Jatiyo Hindu Mahajote, delivering an indoor speech, espousing the restoration of Akhand Bharat, which is essentially an RSS project, and expressing hopes that the Hindutvadi fascist BJP government in India returns to power time and again. By the way, Pramanik is not the only one in making such statements. Many Bangladeshi Hindu organizations are known to have ties with the Indian establishment.

On July 18, 2019, during Trump’s presidency, Priya Saha, organizing secretary of the Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council (HBCUC), had no bite of conscience to making “false, purposeful and treasonous remarks“ against Bangladesh in a meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C. Interestingly, she was picked up by the U.S. Embassy in Dhaka for the White House visit. [Note: In his presidential campaign in 2016, Donald Trump said: ‘I love the Hindus’.] During the talks, Ms. Saha sought American help to protect “18 million minority people” in Bangladesh and told Trump “please help us, we don’t want to leave our country, just help us stay. I’ve lost my home, they’ve burned my home, they [have] taken away my land, but no judgement [has] yet taken place”. Her ridiculous claims were an embarrassment for her own party. “We are embarrassed... the comments she made were her own and not ours,” HBCUC spokesman Kajal Debnath later told PTI.

As to the outside provocateurs, consider, for instance, the remarks of a Hindutvadi leader. Days after the alleged attacks on Hindu temples during this year’s Durga Puja in Bangladesh, BJP MP Subramanian Swamy reiterated a provocative suggestion he has made in the past—India should invade its eastern neighbor. On Monday, Swamy tweeted a media report from 2018 that quoted him as saying, "If Bangladesh does not stop torturing the Hindus, I would recommend that our government invades Bangladesh and takes it over".

The BJP in West Bengal, where by-elections were held for four assembly seats on Saturday, 30 October, predictably exploited the communal flare-up in Bangladesh to harvest Hindu votes after the defeat at the hands of Trinamool Congress in the Legislative Assembly elections. It is difficult to ignore the motivation for a BJP/RSS and RAW-inspired communal flare-up in Bangladesh that may weaken Mamata Banerjee and her ruling party in this by-election.

As the short list above suggests, Bangladeshis have ample reasons to be gravely concerned about Indian hegemony and its machinations.

The dream for an Akhand Bharat has never faded from the psyche of many Hindus, esp., Indian politicians from the ruling BJP that is aligned with the Hindutvadi agenda of the RSS. And what could be a better excuse than annexing Bangladesh under the pretext of 'protecting' its 'suffering' and 'threatened' Hindu minority!

Lest we forget, events of this kind, i.e., annexation, has happened more than once in India’s expansionist history. Just a study of the events leading up to the annexation of Hyderabad - a princely state ruled by a Muslim Nizam, Goa - a Christian enclave on the Indian Ocean in south-west India, and Sikkim - a Buddhist-majority border territory –  is sufficient to show that India has used such devious ploys of protecting  Hindu minorities to annexing other territories. What is common in all these cases is that days and months before such annexation, mysterious attacks on Hindus from some ‘unknown’ sources would provide the necessary justification for India to march-in with its massive forces. 

So, the Durga Puja related communal unrest, albeit a short, isolated and contained one, inside Bangladesh should be a sufficient wake-up call if a conspiracy is in the making.

Is it by coincidence that all those districts inside Bangladesh where Hindu temples were attacked by angry Muslims allegedly had the top administrative positions held by Hindu officers? Is it possible they had allowed, planted or fostered such crimes at the behest of the RAW? I don't know the answer, but can guess that it is plausible.

After the temple attacks, the Hasina government has reportedly relocated those officers for their either sheer negligence or collusion with criminal elements inside or outside the country. But such job reassignments failed to address the main concern: were they part of a criminal conspiracy against the sovereignty of Bangladesh? Justice demands that truth needs to come out in an unbiased inquiry.

Anyway, the isolated events during the Durga Puja over defamatory footage shared on social media have attracted Indian celebrities who have tweeted highly offensive remarks about Bangladesh and its people who have a history of living together peacefully and harmoniously. 

Sadly, these Indian celebrities are silent when Muslims are lynched, mosques vandalized and their properties destroyed at will inside India. Where is the outrage when Hindu groups attacked mosques, ransacked shops and homes owned by Muslims in Indian state of Tripura a week after the Durga Puja tragedy in Bangladesh? Indian Police have seemingly given a free hand to rioters who resort to looting, arson, and attacks on minority households.

A comparison of the Indian attitude under the BJP government that promotes intolerance against the Muslim minorities to those of the Awami League government in Bangladesh in its favoritism of the Hindu minorities is sufficient to show the utter hypocrisy of the Indian celebrities. Not surprisingly, neither Priya Saha nor Gobinda Chandra Pramanik has been arrested for their treasonous acts. On the other hand, according to opposition parties in Bangladesh, hundreds of their party members, and other Muslims continue to languish in the prison cells under the draconian Digital Security Act for a fraction of such crimes.

The daydreamers can dream what they like, but the fact remains: Bangladesh is neither becoming India nor Pakistan.  After all, while under Narendra Modi, Muslims are facing genocide from Assam to Kashmir simply because of their Islamic identity, interestingly Bangladeshi Hindus have seen unparalleled ascendancy in jobs under Sheikh Hasina. While Indian Muslims, who comprise more than 14% of the population, hold less than 3% government jobs, the share of Hindu jobs inside Bangladesh is three to five times their proportionate share of the population in most public sectors. The Bangladeshi Hindus also hold key positions in many ministries. By any measure, the status of Hindus in Bangladesh is much better than the status of Muslims inside India.

The attack on Hindu mandir is deplorable, irrespective of whether or not it had foreign connection, even of the RAW. Bangladesh government and people should never allow intolerance to breed in.

Before complaining about Bangladesh, Indian celebrities could have done us all a favor by looking inside India and addressing the sickening intolerance that has made Indian secularism a hogwash. When activism is directed to identifying the root cause of intolerance and weeding such out, it is a noble agenda that we can all feel good about and be part of enthusiastically. On the other hand, a one-sided claim that is short of facts and figures only emboldens mobocracy and paves the path for more intolerance, and nothing better.

We live in a digitally connected world where the images shown and statements made somewhere don’t remain localized any more. They percolate and can have adverse effects on others that are far and near. The same technology that has brought us together has the greater power to divide and polarize us irreparably. We simply can’t let that happen.

 [Revised from an earlier posted article on Aparna Sen]

Tripura Police Turn Fence-Sitters; Watch Looting, Arson of Muslim Mosques

 NEW DELHI—For the last five days, Hindutva groups have been running riot in Tripura.

Muslim shrines, mosques, properties, and shops are being vandalized at will. This comes against the backdrop of attacks on minorities in Bangladesh.

Police have seemingly given a free hand to rioters who resort to looting, arson, and attacks on minority households.

At least 12 mosques in five districts have been vandalized in the last five days. Several mosques and holy books have been torched. Friday was the worst day for Muslims in Tripura. Goons openly attacked the mosques.

Locals blame Vishwa Hindu Parishad and other Hindutva groups for torching mosques and damaging the properties of Muslims. VHP and other groups carried out marches through minority inhabited areas and raised provocative slogans.

A mosque in Pal Bazaar was targeted on Saturday night, and religious books were allegedly burnt. A mosque was vandalized in Kalamcherra market on Saturday. Later, the bakery shop of Shamim Ahmed of Kailashahar police station was targeted.

RESIST ETHNIC VIOLENCE:
MUSLIM LIVES UNDER THREAT IN TRIPURA. PIC.TWITTER.COM/DOPUELBPPP

— Abu Jafar Molla (@abuJafarmolla3) October 24, 2021

On October 17, an attempt was made to attack the house of Muslim businessman Abdul Mannan by Vishwa Hindu Parishad. Moreover, efforts were made to vitiate the atmosphere on the occasion of Eid Milad-un-Nabi (PUBH).

Reports of damage to many shops and properties belonging to the Muslim community are also pouring in from different places. A mosque was targeted in Chandrapur, the assembly of Tripura Chief Minister Biplab Kumar Dev.

India Tomorrow tried to contact the Police Control Room at Agartala, but they refused to comment on arson and targeting minorities. “We cannot give such information over the phone. Talk to Delhi Control Room. We do not have orders to share any information,” an officer at the Control Room said.

The official said only MHA could share the details. “We cannot share any information with media. We are not allowed to talk to the press,” he said and dropped the phone.

Former MLA from North Tripura’s Dharmanagar Assembly and CPIM leader Amitabh Dutta said, “Such incidents have no place in a democracy. Attacks on minorities anywhere in the world are condemnable.”

CPIM leader and MLA from North Tripura’s Kadamtala-Kurti assembly, Islamuddin, said mosques were being targeted.

“Many mosques have been attacked. The atmosphere is not peaceful. Police have not yet taken any action against the rioters. A memorandum has been submitted to the administration, but no action has been taken so far. We are planning to meet the Chief Minister,” he said.

Noted artist Pradyot Manikya has taken to Twitter and appealed for peace and brotherhood.

Association for Protection of Civil Rights (APCR) and Students Islamic Organization of India (SIO) met the DM and SP of Unakoti district of Tripura and submitted a memorandum.

American Coups: a Recurring Nightmare? BY ALFRED W. MCCOY

 As an eyewitness, I can recall the events of January 6th in Washington as if they were yesterday. The crowds of angry loyalists storming the building while overwhelmed security guards gave way. The slavishly loyal vice-president who would, the president hoped, restore him to power. The crush of media that seemed confused, almost overwhelmed, by the crowd’s fury. The waiter who announced that the bar had run out of drinks and would soon be closing…

Hold it! My old memory’s playing tricks on me again. That wasn’t the U.S. Capitol in January 2021. That was the Manila Hotel in the Philippines in July 1986. Still, the two events had enough similarities that perhaps I could be forgiven for mixing them up.

I’ve studied quite a number of coups in my day, yet the one I actually witnessed at the Manila Hotel remains my favorite, not just because the drinks kept coming, but for all it taught me about the damage a coup d’état, particularly a political coup, can do to any democracy. In February 1986, a million Filipinos thronged the streets of Manila to force dictator Ferdinand Marcos into exile. After long years of his corruption and callous indifference to the nation’s suffering, the crowds cheered their approval when Marcos finally flew off to Hawaii and his opponent in the recent presidential election restored democracy.

But Marcos had his hard-core loyalists. One Sunday afternoon, four months after his flight, they massed in a Manila park to call for the restoration of their beloved president. After speakers had whipped the crowd of 5,000 into a frenzy with — and yes, this should indeed sound familiar in 2021 — claims about a stolen election, thousands of ordinary Filipinos pushed past security guards and stormed into the nearby Manila Hotel, a storied symbol of their country’s history. Tipped off by one of the Filipino colonels plotting that coup, I was standing in the hotel’s entryway at 5:00 p.m. as the mob, fury written on their faces, surged past me.

For the next 24 hours, that hotel’s marbled lobby became the stage for an instructive political drama. From my table at the adjoining bar, I watched as armed warlords, ousted Marcos cronies, and several hundred disgruntled soldiers paraded through the lobby on their way to the luxury suites where the coup commanders had checked themselves in. Following in their wake were spies from every nation — Australian secret intelligence, American defense intelligence, and their Asian and European counterparts — themselves huddled in groups, whispering mysteriously, trying (just like me) to make sense of the bizarre spectacle unfolding around them.

Later that same evening, Marcos’s former vice-president, the ever-loyal Arturo Tolentino, appeared at the head of the stairs flanked by a security detail to announce the formation of a “legitimate” new government authorized by Marcos who had reportedly called long-distance from Honolulu. As the vice president proclaimedhimself acting president and read off the names of those to be in his cabinet, Filipino journalists huddling nearby scribbled notes. They were furiously trying to figure out whether there was a real coalition forming that could topple the country’s democracy. It was, however, just the usual suspects — Marcos cronies, leaders largely without followers.

By midnight, the party was pretty much over. Our waiter, after struggling for hours to maintain that famed hotel’s standard of five-star service, apologized to our table of foreign correspondents because the bar had been drunk dry and was closing. Sometime before dawn, the hotel turned off the air conditioning, transforming those executive suites into saunas and, in the process, flushing out the coup plotters, their hangers-on, and most of the soldiers.

All day long, on the city’s brassy talk-radio stations and in the coffee shops where insiders gathered to swap scuttlebutt, Marcos’s loyalists were roasted, even mocked. The troops that had rallied to his side were sentenced to 30 push-ups on the parade ground — a source of more mirth. For spies and correspondents alike, the whole thing seemed like a one-day wonder, barely worth writing home about.

But it wasn’t. Not by a long shot. A coterie of colonels deep inside the Defense Ministry, my source among them, had observed that comedic coup attempt all too carefully and concluded that it had actually been a near-miss.

A year later, I found myself standing in the middle of an eight-lane highway outside the city’s main military cantonment, Camp Aguinaldo, ducking bullets from rebel soldiers who had seized the base and watching as government Marines and dive bombers attacked. This time, however, those colonels had launched a genuine coup attempt. No drinks. No waiters. No wisecracks. Just a day of bombs and bullets that crushed the plotters, leaving the country’s military headquarters a smoking ruin.

Two years later, the same coup colonels were back again for another attempt, leading 3,000 rebel troops in a multipronged attack on a capital that trembled on the brink of surrender. As a cavalcade of rebel armor drove relentlessly toward the presidential palace with nothing in their way, American President George H.W. Bush took a call aboard Air Force One over the Atlantic about a desperate request from his Philippine counterpart and ordered a pair of U.S. Air Force jet fighters to make a low pass over the rebel tanks and trucks. They got the message: turn back or be bombed into extinction. And so Philippine democracy was allowed to survive for another 30 years.

Message from the Manila Hotel

The message for democracy offered from the Manila Hotel was clear — so clear, in fact, that it helps explain the meaning of tangled events in Washington more than 30 years later. Whether it’s a poor country like the Philippines or a superpower like the United States, democracy is a surprisingly fragile construct. Its worst enemy is often an ousted ex-president, angry over his humiliation and perfectly willing to destroy the constitutional order to regain power.

No matter how angry such an ex-president might be, however, his urge for a political coup can’t succeed without the help of raw force, whether from a mob, a disgruntled military, or some combination of the two. The Manila Hotel coup teaches us one other fundamental thing: that coups need not be carefully planned. Most start with a handful of conspirators plotting some symbolic attack meant to shake the constitutional order, while hoping to somehow stall the security services for a few critical hours — just long enough for events to cascade spontaneously into a desired government collapse.

Whether in Manila or Washington, coup plotting usually starts right at the top. Just after the news networks announced that he had lost the election last November, Donald Trump launched a media blitz with spurious claims of “fraud on the American public,” firing off 300 tweets in the next two weeks loaded with false charges of irregularities and sparking loud, long protests by his loyalists at vote-counting centers in Michigan and Arizona.

When that response got little traction and Biden’s majority kept climbing, Trump began exploring three alternate routes, any of which might have led to a constitutional coup — manipulating the Justice Department to delegitimize the election, rigging the ratification of electoral votes in Congress, and the paramilitary (or military) option. At a White House meeting on December 18th, Michael Flynn, Trump’s former national security advisor, urged the president to “invoke martial law as part of his efforts to overturn the election” and accused his staff of “abandoning the president,” sparking “screaming matches” in the Oval Office.

By January 3rd, rumors and reports of Trump’s military option were circulating so credibly around Washington that all 10 living former defense secretaries — Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and Mark Esper, among them — published a joint appealto the armed forces to remain neutral in the ongoing dispute over the election’s integrity. Reminding the troops that “peaceful transfers of power… are hallmarks of our democracy,” they added that “efforts to involve the U.S. armed forces in resolving election disputes” would be “dangerous, unlawful, and unconstitutional.” They warned the troops that any “military officials who direct or carry out such measures would be… potentially facing criminal penalties.” In conclusion, they suggested to Trump’s secretary of defense and senior staff “in the strongest terms” that “they must…refrain from any political actions that undermine the results of the election.”

To legitimate his claims of fraud, according to the New York Times, the president also tried — on nine separate occasions in December and January — to force the Justice Department to take actions that would “undermine an election result.” In response, a mid-ranking Trump loyalist at Justice, a nonentity named Jeffrey Clark, began pressuring his boss, the attorney-general, to write Georgia officials claiming they had found “significant concerns that may have impacted the outcome of the election.” But at a three-hour White House meeting on January 3rd, Acting Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen balked at this evidence-free accusation. Trump promptly suggested that he could be replaced by that mid-ranking loyalist who could then send the fraud letter to Georgia. The president’s own top appointees at Justice, along with the White House counsel, immediately threatened to resign en masse, forcing Trump to give up on such an intervention at the state level.

Next, he shifted his constitutional maneuvering to Congress where, on January 6th, his doggedly loyal vice president, Mike Pence, would be presiding over the ratification of results from the Electoral College. In this dubious gambit, Trump was inspired by a bizarre constitutional theory advanced by former Chapman University law professor John Eastman — that the “Constitution assigns the power to the Vice President as the ultimate arbiter.”

In this scenario, Pence would unilaterally set aside electoral votes from seven states with “ongoing disputes” and announce that Trump had won a majority of the remaining electors — making him once again president. But the maneuver had no basis in law, so Pence, after scrambling desperately and unsuccessfully for a legal justification of some sort, eventually refused to play along.

A Political Coup

With the constitutional option closed, Trump opted for a political coup, rolling the dice with raw physical force, much as Marcos had done at the Manila Hotel. The first step was to form a crowd with some paramilitary muscle to stiffen the assault to come. On December 19th, Trump called on his hard-core followers to assemble in Washington, ready for violence, tweeting: “Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!”

Almost immediately, the Internet’s right-wing chat boards lit up and indeed their paramilitaries, the Proud Boys and Three Percenters militia, turned up in Washington on the appointed day, ready to rumble. After President Trump roused the crowd at a rally near the White House with rhetoric about a stolen election, a mob of some 10,000 marched on the Capitol Building.

Starting at about 1:00 p.m., the sheer size of the crowd and strategic moves by the paramilitaries in their ranks broke through the undermanned lines of the Capitol Police, breaching the building’s first-floor windows at about 2:10 p.m. and allowing protesters to start pouring in. Once the rioters had accomplished the unimaginable and seized the Capitol, they were fresh out of plans, reduced to marching through the corridors hunting legislators and trashing offices.

At 2:24 p.m., President Trump tweeted: “Mike Pence didn’t have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country.” On the far-right social media site Parler, his supporters began messaging the crowd to get the vice president and force him to stop the election results. The mob rampaged through the marbled halls shouting “Hang Mike Pence.” Hunkered down inside the Capitol, Representative Adam Kinzinger (R-Illinois) tweeted: “This is a coup attempt.”

At 2:52 p.m., Representative Abigail Spanberger (D-Virginia), a former CIA agent, tweeted from inside the barricaded House chamber: “This is what we see in failing countries. This is what leads to the death of democracy.”

At 3:30 p.m., a small squad of military police arrived at the Capitol, woefully inadequate reinforcements for the overwhelmed Capitol Police. Ten minutes later, the D.C. Council announced that the Defense Department had denied the mayor’s request to mobilize the local National Guard. While the crowd fumbled and fulminated, some serious people were evidently slowing the military’s response for just the few critical hours needed for events to cascade into something, anything, that could shake the constitutional order and slow the ratification of Joe Biden’s election.

In nearby Maryland, Republican Governor Larry Hogan had immediately mobilizedhis state’s National Guard for the short drive to the Capitol while frantically phoning Acting Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller, who repeatedly refused him permission to send in the troops. Inside the Pentagon, Lieutenant General Charles Flynn, the brother of the same Michael Flynn who had been pushing Trump to declare martial law, was participating in what CNN called those “key January 6th phone calls” that refused permission for the Guard’s mobilization.

Following a phone call from the mayor of Washington and its police chief pleading for help, Secretary of the Army Ryan McCarthy “ran down the hall” of the Pentagon to get authorization for the Guard’s mobilization. After a crucial delay of 90 minutes, he finally called the Maryland governor, outside the regular chain of command, to authorize the Maryland Guard’s dispatch. Those would indeed be the first troops to arrive at the Capitol and would play a critical role in restoring order.

At about 4:30 p.m., Trump finally tweeted: “These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide election victory is so unceremoniously and viciously stripped away from great patriots who have been badly & unfairly treated for so long. Go home in love & peace.”

Ten minutes later, at 4:40 p.m., hundreds of riot personnel from the D.C. police, the FBI, and the Department of Homeland Security arrived, along with the Maryland Guard, to reinforce the Capitol Police. Within an hour, the protesters had been pushed out of the building and the Capitol was declared secure.

Just five days later, Dr. Fiona Hill, a senior Russia expert on the National Security Council under Trump, reviewed these events and concluded that President Trump had staged a coup “in slow motion… to keep himself in power.”

History’s Lessons

Beyond all the critical details of who did what and when, there were deeper historical forces at play, suggesting that Donald Trump’s urge for a political coup that would return him to power may be far from over. For the past 100 years, empires in decline have been roiled by coup attempts that sometimes have overturned constitutional orders. As their military reverses accumulate, their privileged economic position erodes, and social tensions mount, a succession of societies in the grip of a traumatic loss of global power have suffered coups, successful or not, including Great Britain, France, Portugal, Spain, the Soviet Union, and now the United States.

Britain’s plot was a bit fantastical. Amid the painful, protracted dissolution of their empire, Conservative leaders plotted with top generals in 1968 to oust leftist Labour Prime Minister Harold Wilson by capturing Heathrow airport, seizing the BBC and Buckingham Palace, and putting Lord Mountbatten in power as acting prime minister. Britain’s parliamentary tradition simply proved too strong, however, and key principals in the plot quickly backed out.

In April 1974, while Portugal was fighting and losing three bitter anticolonial wars in Africa, a Lisbon radio station played the country’s entry in that year’s Eurovision Song Contest (“After the Farewell”) just minutes before midnight on an evening that had been agreed upon. It was the signal to the military and their supporters to overthrow the entrenched conservative government of that moment, a success which became known as the “Carnation Revolution.”

However, the parallels between January 6th and the fall of France’s Fourth Republic in the late 1950s are perhaps the most telling. After liberating Paris from Nazi occupation in August 1944, General Charles de Gaulle headed an interim government for 18 months. He then quit in a dispute with the left, launching him into a decade of political intrigue against the new Fourth Republic, whose liberal constitution he despised.

By the mid-1950s, France was reeling from its recent defeat in Indochina, while the struggle against Muslim revolutionaries in its Algerian colony in North Africa turned ever more brutal, marked as it was by scandals over the widespread French use of torture. Amid that crisis of empire, an anti-elite, anti-intellectual, antisemitic politician named Pierre Poujade launched a populist movement that sent 56 members to parliament in 1956, including Jean-Marie Le Pen, later founder of the far-right National Front.

Meanwhile, a cabal of politicians and military commanders plotted a coup to return General de Gaulle to power, thinking he alone could save Algeria for France. After an army junta seized control of Algiers, the capital of that colony, in May 1958, paratroopers stationed there were sent to capture the French island of Corsica and to prepare to seize Paris should the legislature fail to install de Gaulle as prime minister.

As the country trembled on the brink of a coup, de Gaulle made his dramatic entry into Paris where he accepted the National Assembly’s offer to form a government, conditional upon the approval of a presidential-style constitution for a Fifth Republic. But when de Gaulle subsequently accepted the inevitability of Algeria’s independence, four top generals launched an abortive coup against him and then formed what they called the Secret Army Organization, or OAS. It would carry out terror attacks over the next four years, with 12,000 victims, while staging three unsuccessful assassination attempts against de Gaulle before its militants were killed or captured.

The Coup of 2024?

Just as the Filipino colonels spent five years launching a succession of escalating coups and those French generals spent four years trying to overthrow their government, so Trump’s Republicans are working with ferocious determination in the run-up to the 2022 and 2024 elections to ensure that their next constitutional coup succeeds. Indeed, if you look back on events over the past year through the prism of such historical precedents, you can see all the components for a future political coup falling into place.

No matter how improbable, discredited, or bizarre those election fraud claims are, Republican loyalists persist in endless ballot audits in Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Texas. Their purpose is not really to find more votes for Trump in the 2020 election, but to maintain at least the present level of rage among the one-third of all Americans and more than half of all Republicans who believe that Joe Biden’s presidency is fraudulent.

Since the 2020 election coincided with the new census, Republicans have been working, reports Vox news, to “gerrymander themselves into control of the House of Representatives.” Simultaneously, Republican legislators in 19 states have passed 33 laws making it more difficult for certain of their residents to vote. Driven by the white nationalist “replacement theory” that immigrants and people of color are diluting the pool of “real American” voters, Trump and his Republican loyalists are fighting for “ballot integrity” on the principle that all non-white votes are inherently illegitimate. As Trump put it on the stump in 2016:

“I think this will be the last election that the Republicans have a chance of winning because you’re going to have people flowing across the border, you’re going to have illegal immigrants coming in… and they’re going to be able to vote and once that all happens you can forget it. You’re not going to have one Republican vote.”

In case all that electoral manipulation fails and Trump needs more muscle for a future political coup, right-wing fighters like the Proud Boys are still rumbling away at rallies in Oregon, California, and elsewhere across America. Just as the Philippine government made military rebels do a risible 30 push-ups for the capital crime of armed rebellion, so federal courts have generally been handing out the most modest of penalties to rioters who attempted nothing less than the overthrow of U.S. constitutional democracy last January 6th.

Among the 600 rioters arrested as of August, dozens have been allowed to plead guilty to misdemeanors and only three had been sentenced to jail time, leaving most cases languishing in pretrial motions. Already Republicans like Senator Ted Cruz have rallied to their defense, writing the U.S. attorney general to complain about an “unequal administration of justice” with “harsher treatment” for Capitol defendants than those arrested in Black Lives Matter protests.

So, in 2024, as the continuing erosion of America’s global power creates a crisis of confidence among ordinary Americans, expect Donald Trump to be back, not as the slightly outrageous candidate of 2016 or even as the former president eager to occupy the White House again, but as a militant demagogue with thundering racialist rhetoric, backed by a revanchist Republican Party ready, with absolute moral certainty, to bar voters from the polls, toss ballots out, and litigate any loss until hell freezes over.

And if all that fails, the muscle will be ready for another violent march on Washington.  Be prepared, the America we know is worsening by the month.