MSN: How the fate of a US pilot could change the course of the war
The fate of the missing crew member of the US fighter jet shot down in Iran could change the course of the war.
One of two pilots was rescued by US forces deep inside Iran, American officials said on Friday.
The rescue of the second would be an astonishing outcome for the US, but could also embolden Washington to keep striking.
With Donald Trump already considering a ground invasion, the sight of rescue planes and helicopters operating over Iran relatively unchallenged could offer encouragement for military planners.
Black Hawk helicopters were seen circling low over the mountain valleys alongside C-130 transport aircraft and reconnaissance drones after the US F-15 plane went down.
The mission to rescue the first crew member, at least, appears to have taken place without any further US casualties.
But the situation could escalate into several possible scenarios if the second crew member is captured by the Iranian armed forces or local militias.
The 1979 hostage crisis may offer a blueprint for this outcome. For 444 days, the fate of American diplomats held in Tehran dominated news coverage, shaped public opinion and contributed to Jimmy Carter’s electoral defeat.
If Iran broadcasts footage of the pilot, Mr Trump would face immediate pressure from Congress, military families, veterans’ groups and the American public to halt operations and negotiate his release.
Continuing air strikes on Iran may become politically untenable, potentially forcing a ceasefire on less favourable terms.
Negotiated release
The second path involves Iran capturing the pilot but not immediately broadcasting evidence, instead using him as leverage in broader negotiations to end the war.
A captured pilot could be worth far more to Iran than just a ceasefire.
Rather than trading him for one concession, Tehran could bundle its demands – ceasefire, control over Strait of Hormuz transit and tolls, limits on future US military operations and possibly sanctions relief.
Iran has consistently sought to transform its wartime closure of the Strait of Hormuz into permanent peacetime authority.
Its parliament this week moved to formalise toll collection and shipping restrictions. A captured American pilot gives Tehran negotiating power it lacked when discussions were purely military.
Mr Trump, facing domestic pressure to rescue the pilot, would have to weigh whether accepting Iranian demands exceeds the political cost of a prolonged hostage situation.
This scenario plays out more quietly: no propaganda broadcasts and staged appearances, just Iran letting it be known it holds an American and is open to a deal.
It provides Mr Trump with a potential off-ramp.
He could frame a negotiated settlement that includes the pilot’s release as achieving multiple objectives: recovering American service members, degrading Iranian military capabilities and reaching an agreement.
Death and escalation
A pilot killed in capture or during a failed rescue would flip the entire dynamic. Instead of an off-ramp, it could become a trigger for a ground invasion.
If the pilot dies and evidence suggests Iranian forces killed him after ejection, or if a rescue attempt fails with American casualties, Mr Trump will face immediate pressure to respond.
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