Shrinking aid, fresh influx drive Rohingya crisis into dangerous phase

Ali Asif Shawon

Nearly nine years after the Rohingya influx began, Bangladesh’s refugee crisis is entering what aid agencies warn could become its most dangerous phase yet -- shrinking international funding, fresh arrivals from Myanmar, worsening camp conditions and fading hopes of repatriation are colliding at once, raising fears of deeper instability inside the overcrowded camps of Cox’s Bazar.

On Wednesday, the United Nations and its humanitarian partners launched the updated 2026 Joint Response Plan (JRP), seeking $710.5 million to support Rohingya refugees and vulnerable host communities.

But even the new appeal reflects a major contraction in aid rather than an expansion of support.

The 2026 appeal is 26% lower than the revised 2025 plan and, according to the UN itself, represents only the “bare minimum required” to sustain the humanitarian response.

The warning comes as the Rohingya population in Bangladesh has swelled to nearly 1.2 million, including an estimated 150,000 new arrivals since early 2024 as violence intensifies again in Myanmar’s Rakhine State.

Overall, the response is now expected to support around 1.56 million people, including both refugees and Bangladeshi host communities.

Yet funding trends are moving sharply in the opposite direction.

According to data presented in the JRP launch, humanitarian funding for the Rohingya response has steadily declined despite repeated emergencies, camp fires, cyclones, disease outbreaks and growing refugee numbers over the past several years.

The original 2025 humanitarian appeal had already been reduced from $1.018 billion to $965 million through what agencies described as “cost-efficiency measures,” simplified coordination structures and revised operational assumptions.

Now, the 2026 appeal has been cut even further to $710.5 million.

The implications are already becoming visible inside the camps.

The JRP presentation warned of “early signs of service degradation and increasing system stress,” with reduced funding affecting food assistance, shelter, health services, sanitation, education, nutrition, protection and livelihood programs simultaneously.

According to the funding breakdown, food security alone requires $247.3 million in 2026, while shelter and camp coordination need $128 million.

Water, sanitation and hygiene services require $61.2 million, education $52.7 million and health services nearly $50 million.

However, by the time of the launch, only $291 million had been received, with another $145.9 million committed, leaving an overall funding gap of $260.9 million -- roughly 37% of total requirements.

Some sectors are facing particularly severe shortfalls.

Protection services are underfunded by 68%, livelihoods and skills development by 62%, education by 53%, shelter and camp coordination by 57%, and health services by 48%, according to the JRP figures.

Coordination itself faces an 84% funding gap.

Aid agencies warn that such cuts are especially dangerous because the camps remain overwhelmingly dependent on humanitarian support.

The report notes that in 2025, around 35% of camp households depended entirely on food aid, while only 23% had access to cash-for-work opportunities.

Another 42% relied on temporary and unstable income sources.

That dependency has already exposed the fragility of the system before.

In 2023, food assistance for Rohingya refugees was cut first to $10 per person monthly and later to $8 because of funding shortages before international pressure partially restored rations.

For many refugees, that period became a symbol of how quickly humanitarian lifelines can collapse.

The latest UN assessment also warns of growing risks linked to monsoon hazards, climate shocks, supply-chain disruptions, price volatility and deteriorating social cohesion inside and around the camps.

The pressure is increasingly spilling beyond the camps themselves.

Host communities in Cox’s Bazar continue to shoulder economic, environmental and social burdens from one of the world’s largest refugee settlements, while frustrations have grown over shrinking resources and prolonged uncertainty.

Although the JRP includes $36.16 million for host communities, major development assistance from institutions like the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and Japan International Cooperation Agency remains outside the humanitarian appeal calculations.

The Rohingya response has also endured repeated shocks since the mass influx began in August 2017, when around half a million Rohingya fled Myanmar within weeks following military crackdowns.

Since then, the camps have faced Covid-19 outbreaks, devastating fires, Cyclone Mocha, severe monsoon damage and repeated funding crises.

In January 2025, the response again faced severe funding cuts, forcing humanitarian agencies to reprioritize operations and launch emergency appeals for new arrivals from Myanmar.

Despite nearly a decade passing since the crisis began, prospects for repatriation remain distant.

“Still there is no hope for repatriation and this funding signal forecasts that in future assistance for Rohingya will drop more,” a senior foreign ministry official told Dhaka Tribune at the launch event.

International agencies echoed concerns that global attention toward the Rohingya crisis is fading even as conditions worsen.

Rania Dagash-Kamara of the World Food Programme praised Bangladesh for hosting the refugees but warned the crisis cannot be allowed to disappear from international focus.

“Rohingya refugees want to return home to Myanmar when they can do so safely, voluntarily, and with dignity,” she said.

“We cannot let this crisis be forgotten.”

Kelly T Clements, deputy high commissioner of United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, warned that funding cuts are already having real impacts on both refugees and host communities.

“The needs remain enormous, and efficiencies alone cannot offset the very real impacts of funding cuts,” she said.

Aid agencies also fear growing desperation may push more Rohingya toward dangerous sea journeys.

According to the UN, 2025 has become the deadliest year on record for Rohingya maritime crossings, with a recent boat carrying more than 270 people capsizing, leaving only nine survivors.

At the event, ambassadors and representatives of foreign countries and aid agencies reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Bangladesh.

“We remain committed to supporting the community and we will continue to do that,” said British High Commissioner to Bangladesh Sarah Cooke, who also serves as Co‑chair of the Rohingya Donor Group.