Trump’s remarkable military failure shows abject fiasco of his Iran war
Iran’s missile arsenal is mostly intact and still capable of attacking America’s allies beyond the Gulf states, two months into a joint US-Israeli bombing campaign.
The White House has repeatedly claimed that Iran’s military capacity has been “decimated” and wiped out, but Nato sources have told The Independent this is not true.
“Whatever anyone is saying in public, we estimate that the Iranians have at least 60 per cent of their missile capability. How else can you explain, for example, how they can continue to attack Gulf nations with missiles and drones?” said a senior Nato source in Europe.
This is the latest blow to American claims to have somehow won a war that has achieved none of its stated aims and shown the limits of US power at a time when Donald Trump is heading to China, hoping to be perceived as first among equals.
“Everybody knows that Trump and Hegseth are talking nonsense when they make claims to have destroyed Iran militarily,” the source continued.
“The missiles are largely intact, and the top people who were negotiating with the US before the US-Israeli attacks are now dead, so hardliners are in charge. Meanwhile, there has been no uprising because the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is intact and used rifles to oppress their people, not missiles, anyway.”
As part of its war aims, the US said it wanted to see Iran’s population rise against a murderous and authoritarian regime in Tehran. It has not done so.
The White House said it aimed to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme. It has not done so. The US said it wanted to end Iran’s destabilising activities around the Middle East. It has not done so.
But Iran has managed to cause a surge in global fossil fuel prices, with oil above $100 (£74) a barrel, and crippling reductions in world supplies of fertiliser during the northern hemisphere’s planting season, by closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Recent reporting from The New York Times and The Washington Post has reinforced the understanding that Iran’s military capacity has survived an onslaught that Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, insists is complete.
The NYT, citing intelligence sources, reports that between 30 and 33 of Iran’s missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz have survived joint Israeli and US bombardment and are therefore able to continue to threaten the oil-shipping chokepoint.
On top of that, the newspaper said it had seen a month-old intelligence assessment that said the US campaign in Iran had been even more unsuccessful than Nato had reckoned.
“Iran still fields about 70 per cent of its mobile launchers across the country and has retained roughly 70 per cent of its pre-war missile stockpile, according to the assessments. That stockpile encompasses both ballistic missiles, which can target other nations in the region, and a smaller supply of cruise missiles, which can be used against shorter-range targets on land or at sea,” the paper said.
The Washington Post also reported that about 70 per cent of Iran’s capacity remained intact.
Intelligence reports also suggest that claims made by the US to have destroyed Iran’s nuclear development programme may be far from realistic.
The fact that the US arsenal contained only a limited stock of deep-penetrating bunker-buster bombs has meant that sites alleged to be part of Iran’s efforts to refine weapons-grade uranium and build missiles that can carry a nuclear weapon are likely to be easily rebuilt.
“Their entrances have been closed, but they’re still there underground,” a Nato source said.
Trump and his “secretary of war”, Pete Hegseth, claimed that Iran’s nuclear programme was “obliterated” in its focused campaign last summer.
On 25 June last year, the White House produced a statement headlined: “Iran’s nuclear facilities have been obliterated – and suggestions otherwise are fake news.”
Trump now dismisses reporting on Iran’s military survival as “virtual TREASON”, posting on social media that revelations of Iran’s capacity are “aiding and abetting the enemy”.
Hegseth similarly claims that Iran’s military capability has been “decimated”. By definition, decimated means reduced by 10 per cent, but it is assumed that he means “destroyed”. Any suggestion to the contrary, he has also dismissed as “fake news”.
But across the Atlantic, for America’s allies – all of whom are bitterly opposed to the regime in Tehran – the assessments of Tehran’s survival remain realistic and well understood.
“Iran now knows without doubt it needs a nuclear weapon to survive, and will probably threaten the Strait of Hormuz in perpetuity,” the Nato source added.
Trump says he does not need China's help to end Iran war, Tehran tightens grip on Hormuz
By Gram Slattery, Marwa Rashad and Ahmed Rasheed
WASHINGTON/LONDON/BAGHDAD, May 12 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he does not think he will need China's help to end the war with Iran, even as hopes for a lasting peace deal dwindled and Tehran tightened its grip over the Strait of Hormuz.
Ahead of a high-stakes summit in Beijing, Trump said he did not think he would need to enlist Chinese President Xi Jinping to resolve the conflict, which has continued to block maritime traffic that normally provides one-fifth of the world's oil supply.
"I don't think we need any help with Iran. We'll win it one way or the other, peacefully or otherwise," he told reporters.
More than one month after a tenuous ceasefire took effect, the two sides have made no progress on an agreement to end hostilities.
Iran, meanwhile, has appeared to firm up its control over the Strait of Hormuz, cutting deals with Iraq and Pakistan to ship oil and liquefied natural gas from the region, according to sources with knowledge of the matter.
Other countries are exploring similar deals, sources said, in a move that could normalise Tehran's control of the waterway on a more permanent basis.
The Trump administration said on Tuesday that senior U.S. and Chinese officials had agreed last month that no country should be able to charge tolls on traffic through the region, in an effort to project consensus on the issue ahead of the summit.
China, which maintains ties with Iran and remains a major buyer of its oil, did not dispute that characterization.
Trump is due to discuss the war with Xi during meetings scheduled for Thursday to Friday, and is widely expected to encourage China to convince Tehran to make a deal with Washington to end the conflict.
U.S. demands include ending Iran's nuclear program and lifting its chokehold on the strait.
Iran has responded with demands of its own, including compensation for war damage, the lifting of the U.S. blockade, and an end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, where U.S. ally Israel is fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. Trump dismissed those positions as "garbage" on Monday.
PRICE OF WAR
As the costs of the war mount, Trump said on Tuesday that Americans’ financial struggles had no influence on his thinking on the Iran war.
The Labor Department said earlier in the day that U.S. consumer inflation continued to accelerate in April, with the annual rate posting its largest gain in three years. The data showed food prices surged, while rental costs and airfares also climbed.
Asked by a reporter to what extent Americans’ economic pain was motivating him to strike a deal, Trump said: “Not even a little bit.”
"The only thing that matters, when I’m talking about Iran, they can’t have a nuclear weapon," Trump said before leaving the White House for his trip to China. "I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all. That's the only thing that motivates me."
The remarks are likely to draw scrutiny from critics as cost-of-living concerns remain a top issue for voters ahead of the November midterm elections.
Brent crude oil futures extended gains, climbing to more than $107 a barrel, as the deadlock left the Strait of Hormuz largely closed.
U.S. Central Command said the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln was in the Arabian Sea enforcing the U.S. blockade, where it had redirected 65 commercial vessels and disabled four others.
The Pentagon put the cost of the war at $29 billion so far, an increase of $4 billion from an estimate provided late last month. An official told lawmakers the new cost included updated repair and replacement of equipment and operational costs.
Surveys show the war is unpopular with U.S. voters less than six months before nationwide elections that will determine whether Trump's Republican Party retains control of Congress.
Two out of three Americans, including one in three Republicans and almost all Democrats, think Trump has not clearly explained why the country has gone to war, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday.
IRANIAN OFFICIALS STAND FIRM
Iranian officials remained defiant.
A Fars news agency report cited an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps official as saying Iran had expanded its definition of the Strait of Hormuz into a zone stretching from the coast of the city of Jask in the east to Siri Island in the west.
In Tehran, the Guards held drills "centred on preparation to confront the enemy", state TV reported.
(Reporting by Reuters Newsrooms; Writing by Andy Sullivan, Lincoln Feast, William Maclean, Alison Williams and Stephen Coates; Editing by Kate Mayberry, Ros Russell, Joe Bavier and Sanjeev Miglani)