An ethnic Rakhine armed group has claimed the seizure of another township in Rakhine State in western Myanmar, vowing to safeguard Chinese investments in the region. In a statement posted to its Telegram account on Sunday, the Arakan Army (AA) announced that it had overrun the last military bases in Gwa, the southernmost of Rakhine’s 17 townships, after two weeks of fighting.
“Despite the military’s armored vehicles, air and naval support, we seized the town after a two-week offensive. Gwa has become the last town seized in 2024,” it said.
Gwa is located around 400 kilometers south of the Rakhine State capital Sittwe, which remains under the junta’s control. Significantly, it is only about 250 kilometers from Yangon, the country’s largest city, and functions as a gateway to the Irrawaddy Delta, one of the few regions of Myanmar that remains under relatively firm junta control.
AA spokesperson Khaing Thu Kha subsequently told Narinjara News that the group’s forces had “taken control of every military base of the terrorist junta in Gwa Town” and were “currently chasing the withdrawing junta troops, who are escaping in chaos.”
The AA, an ethnic Rakhine force that is fighting to create an autonomous state in western Myanmar, is a member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which has inflicted significant defeats on the Myanmar military since launching an offensive known as Operation 1027 in October 2023. As its allies have overrun junta positions in the northern part of Shan State, including the historic capture of the military’s Northeast Regional Command in Lashio, the AA has made significant gains in Rakhine State since November 2023.
After a brief lull, its progress has quickened over the past month. On December 8, the AA said that it was in full control of Myanmar’s border with Bangladesh, after overcoming stiff junta resistance in the town of Maungdaw. Then, on December 20, it announced that it had “completely captured” Ann Township in central Rakhine after weeks of fighting, a victory that was crowned by the capture of the military’s Western Regional Command headquarters. This was the second of the military’s 14 regional military commands to fall to the country’s resistance forces, after the loss of the Northeast Regional Command.
Following these recent victories, the AA now has effective control over 14 of Rakhine State’s 17 township centers, as well as one township in neighboring Chin State. The Myanmar military is desperately reinforcing its garrisons in the three coastal townships that are still under its control: the capital Sittwe, Kyaukphyu Township, and Munaung Township, the latter of which consists of three islands in the Andaman Sea.
Having established a dominant position across the state, the United League of Arakan (ULA), the AA’s political wing, said in a separate statement on Sunday that it is now open to political dialogue with the military junta. Citing the Haigeng Agreement, a short-lived ceasefire agreement brokered by the Chinese government in January 2024, the statement said that “we always remain open to resolving the current internal issues through political means rather than military solutions.”
The two other members of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army have also recently announced their willingness to reopen political talks with the military junta, under Chinese mediation.
This statement is a sign that the AA, with its final victory over the Myanmar military now within sight, is beginning to consider its post-conflict positioning. A particular area of priority is its relations with China, which has considerable infrastructure projects in Rakhine State that now seem destined to fall under AA control. The most significant are concentrated in Kyaukphyu, where China is bankrolling a deep-water port and special economic zone. Kyaukphyu is also the terminus for energy facilities including the oil and gas pipelines that run from the Andaman Sea to China’s Yunnan province.
The security of these investments has become a more pressing concern for the Chinese government as the Alliance has racked up its victories against the Myanmar military. This has been the focus of recent high-level talks between China and the junta, and has seemingly motivated Beijing’s recent turn towards greater intervention in the Myanmar conflict. In particular, China has been pushing Myanmar’s military to permit the establishment of a joint security company that would allow Chinese private security companies to be deployed to protect Chinese investments in the country – among them the energy and port facilities in Kyaukphyu. At the same time, China has pressed the members of the Three Brotherhood Alliance to cease their offensive operations and re-enter political dialogue with the military junta, in a bid to stave off a collapse of central authority that might be detrimental to Chinese interests in Myanmar.
The ULA statement, which was also published in Chinese translation, goes out of its way to reassure foreign countries (i.e. China) that it will respect their investments in Rakhine State. Hailing the “active leadership of the People’s Republic of China,” the statement said that the Arakan People’s Revolutionary Government “welcomes and recognizes all foreign investments that will bring benefits to the Arakan region and assist in its development and progress.” It added that the government “will take special care to ensure the security and safety of those involved in investment activities, projects, and businesses.”
These assurances are a sign that as the ULA/AA takes another step toward its goal of becoming the first armed group to establish its control over an entire state, it is now contemplating how to secure what is perhaps the decisive attribute of statehood – the recognition of other states.
