COVID-19 infection model

The CDC confirmed the first case of COVID-19 in the USA on Feb. 28, 2020. However, according to the CNN, the first case of the virus was reported back in January 21, 2020 when a Washington state man who had recently returned from China. Now, the country has at least 50,076 cases across all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Guam, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

According to CNN, at least 646 people have died, including 210 in New York, 110 in Washington state and 46 in Louisiana.

The number of virus infected partients are known to grow in an exponential manner. Here is a model that I developed based on doubling the rate of infection from 24 hrs (1-day) to 120 hrs (5-days).

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If CDC is believed about the first reported case on Feb. 28, then this model shows that the doubling of infection is happening probably faster than every 2 days (and not 3 days, as reported in the BBC America, March 24, 2020), thus showing the serious nature of the virus.

On the other hand, if the CNN news report about the first occurrence on Jan. 21 is believed, then the doubling of infection is happening probably every 3 days, as reported in the BBC America, March 24, 2020).