Rakhine: A Famine in the Making

 

Rakhine stands on the precipice of an unprecedented disaster. A perfect storm is brewing due to a chain of interlinked developments. With restrictions on goods entering Rakhine across international and domestic borders, absence of incomes, hyperinflation, significantly reduced domestic food production, and a lack of essential services and a social safety net, an already highly vulnerable population may be on the brink of collapse in the coming months.

Based on data collected by UNDP across Rakhine in 2023 and 2024, which includes direct data collection, interviews with key stakeholders (e.g., private sector, associations), surveys by civil society organizations, as well as other data regularly provided by the UN system, Rakhine's economy has stopped functioning, with critical sectors such as trade, agriculture, and construction nearly at a standstill.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

People’s incomes are collapsing because export-oriented, agro-based livelihoods in Rakhine are disappearing as the domestic and international markets are no longer accessible due to blockades. Additionally, the construction sector – a major employer – is shutting down as imports of cement from neighbouring countries have stopped, leading to an exorbitant price increase for this critical intermediate good.

Rakhine could face acute famine imminently. Predictions indicate that domestic food production will only cover 20% of its needs by March-April 2025. Internal rice production is plummeting due to a lack of seeds, fertilizers, severe weather conditions, a steep rise in the number of internally displaced people (IDPs) who can no longer engage in cultivation, and escalating conflict. This, along with the near-total cessation of internal and external trade, will leave over 2 million people at risk of starvation.

Since Myanmar’s independence in 1948, Rakhine has ranked as the poorest or second-poorest state in the Union. Deepening inequalities and poverty, along with the absence of central government structures (while alternative Ethnic Organization Structures are still emerging), will further strain the already fragile state of social cohesion. Inter-communal relations in Rakhine had shown localized signs of improvement in the past two years. However, the recent escalation of manipulation of ethnicity along with the imminent economic catastrophe, will deepen marginalization, disenfranchisement, and ultimately put intercommunal relationships at even greater risk than ever before. As the crisis worsens, the lack of resources and opportunities will continue to fuel tensions and trigger a greater exodus of youth and families, with irregular migration (e.g., people without identity documentation and/or no SAC authorization to move within or outside Rakhine) expected to intensify. This would have repercussions both within Myanmar and beyond its borders, where this trend is already observable. Without safe avenues for escape, we anticipate an increase in human trafficking, particularly among the vulnerable Rohingya population. Under these anticipated conditions, the scenario of repatriating over a million Rohingya is simply inconceivable.

While the current restrictions put in place by the SAC are clearly aimed at isolating Rakhine from the rest of the country and exacting ‘collective punishment’ on an already vulnerable population, the potential continued upsurge in violence in Rakhine State poses serious challenges for neighbouring countries and for the region. Therefore, key stakeholders, particularly neighbouring countries, should consider adjusting their policies and initiatives taking into account international principles. This includes opening borders for trade and aid.

Without urgent action, 95% of the population will regress into survival mode, left to fend for themselves amid a drastic reduction in domestic production, skyrocketing prices, widespread unemployment, and heightened insecurity. With trade routes closed and severe restrictions on aid, Rakhine risks becoming a fully isolated zone of deep human suffering.

The following immediate steps should be taken:

• Goods must be allowed to enter Rakhine. All restrictions currently in place within Myanmar should be lifted, and all parties should ensure commercial goods can enter and exit Rakhine. Furthermore, opening the Bangladesh border for business-to-business channels directly with Rakhine would provide immediate supplies to local markets. The same applies to the Indian border, which is an unpredictable channel for items like rice seeds and fuel that support economic activities in central Rakhine.

• Aid to meet urgent critical needs and restore at least basic livelihoods must be provided without interference by any party to the conflict.

• Unimpeded access and safety for aid workers must be ensured by all parties.

• Sufficient financial resources to support agriculture sector recovery needs must be urgently made available to scale up assistance, over and above immediate life-saving needs.