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News Analysis and Observation- October 2022
Myanmar
is in no doubt amid the worst political, ethnic and economic crisis since
the country’s independence nearly 75 years ago. The unprecedented increase
in the level of violence over the past few weeks further confirmed the fact
the future of the country which is divided along ethnic religious and
political lines is bleak. The incidents of brutal killings, bomb blasts in
major cities, and the burning of civilian homes have become a regular event
since the regime led by Min Aung Hlaing removed an elected
government.
The
junta’s increased use of air power in fighting against the ethnic armed
organizations as well as the civilians supporting pro-democracy militia
groups has increased in recent weeks. And it is likely to be designed by
the regime leaders to show its military capabilities and at the same time
to stop the potential disintegration of Myanmar’s military in the face of
growing casualties. The Myanmar military which rules the country for 55
years since its independence, has always operated on the concept of total
annihilation of its opposition.
There
are daily reports of raids by the junta forces on the village which support
the people’s defense forces fighting the regime across the country. The junta
conducted brutal killings indiscriminately, they event targeted Buddhist
monks as well as the areas where the majority of Bama people live like the
Sagaing and Magway regions. In these areas, there is also a sizable
population of Muslims and Christian communities, who settled in these areas
even before the British colonized Burma in the late 1800s.
Sagaing
and Magway regions have been peaceful for decades and the current level of
violence in the areas indicates that the junta disregard race and religious
loyalties when it comes to consolidating its power base and absolute rule.
These regions have supported the pro-Burma narrative that has been depicted
by the junta for the past several years continued even under the government
led by pro-democracy leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.
That
notion of the junta always looking to protect the rights of the Burma
majority has backfired with these latest incidents and it will also serve
as a lesson for those pro-Burmese nationalists who are still sticking to
that idea of Burmarnisation. They are most likely to be the
target of the junta if they start to stake claim their political rights.
The Burmese military who always believe in absolute control over the power
will never share power with these ragtag nationalist organizations and
individuals who are indiscriminately targeting the members of minority
religions.
The
airstrike on 23 October on a civilian target near the headquarters of the
Kachin Independent Organization (KIO) by the junta’s air force and
indiscriminate bombings of civilian targets in other parts of the country,
in which hundreds of people including school children are killed. The
United Nations called these attacks “war crimes”, and these attacks are not
only a stark reminder of the suffering inflicted on the civilians by the
barbaric military regime but also serve as another example of failure by
the international community to impose an effective punitive measure on the
barbaric regime led by Min Aung Hlaing.
These
developments come amid growing indications of disunity within the ranks of
the Myanmar military. Recently, Min Aung Hlaing warned his troops not to
allow leaks of secret military information to the media and opposition
groups. Some of the leaked information is related to his travel plan inside
the country. He was forced to cancel a trip to Mon State on 6 October as
there was an attack on security forces responsible for organizing the trip
was attacked. However, it seems to be continuing even after Min
Aung Hlaing issued the warning. In one example the names of the
fighter pilots who were involved in KIO’s Alaw Bum camp were leaked to the
media a day after the attack.
In
other major internal crises, the Rohingya crisis which existed issue before
the military coup lingers on with the displaced refugees continuing to
suffer inside Rakhine State as well as in the crowded camps in Bangladesh’s
Cox’s Bazaar District.
In
recent weeks there have been targeted killings of Rohingya rights activists
who are in favor of working together with Bangladesh and Myanmar to find a
solution. There have been long-term concerns over using Rohingya refugees
as recruitment sources for the extreme element remains a real danger.
The
military regime in Myanmar could embark on addressing the Rohingya crisis
as a way to alleviate the international pressure on it, however, such an
attempt is likely to hamper due to the security situation in Rakhine State
with the resumption of fighting between the junta troops and a small but
very efficient rebel group the Arakan Army (AA) in the areas where Rohingya
are planned to be resettled. AA which is fighting for an independent
homeland for the Rakhine people looking to address the Rohingya crisis more
pragmatically.
Amid
these developments, the suffering of the Rohingya people continues with
almost daily arrests of Muslims by the junta’s security forces as they
tired to flee hardships in Rakhine State. They also become a soft target
for both the junta’s military AA in their entrenched conflict across
Rakhine State.
In
a recent estimate, the UN refugee agency UNHCR said nearly 1 million
Rohingya Muslims are still in Bangladesh, and it said the situation in
Myanmar is not conducive for repatriation.
As
the situation escalates in the country, the exiled government of Myanmar
the National Unity Government (NUG) so far failed to muster international
recognition. With the NUG being dominated by pro-NLD politicians it is not
gaining enough support from all the opposition groups, especially from the
ethnic armed organizations. The NUG in recent months has been able to
attack the nerve center of the junta’s economic interest, as it lobbies for
tougher economic sanctions appears to be succeeding. However, the NUG may
so far lack a plan on how to reconcile the different opinions on Myanmar’s
political future. More urgently it needs to give attention to addressing
the unfolding catastrophic humanitarian situation in the
county.
Meanwhile,
the scale of the suffering of civilians due to internal conflicts has
exceptionally increased under the junta rule. The latest report by the
United Nations Office for Humanitarian Coordination (UNOCHA) said, “ongoing
hostilities across Myanmar continue to endanger the lives, safety, mental
health, and livelihoods of civilians. The report published on 31 October
said heavy armed clashes, including airstrikes, artillery fire, and
ambushes were reported predominantly in the northwest and southeast of the
country, as well as in Rakhine and southern Chin. The surge in displacement
continues, with more than 1.4 million people remaining internally displaced
across the country, of whom more than 1.1 million fled their homes since
the 2021 military takeover”.
In
the latest effort to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis in Myanmar
the Foreign Ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN), of which Myanmar is a member, convened an emergency talk in
Jakarta on 27 October to brainstorm on the situation in the country.
However, the meeting failed to agree on a proposal put forward by Malaysia,
a founding member of the regional grouping, to withdraw diplomatic
recognition of the junta and accept the National Unity Government (NUG) as
a legitimate government of Myanmar.
The
diplomacy by the United Nations to persuade the junta to embrace reform has
suffered a major setback after a disastrous mission conducted by the UN
Secretary General’s Special Envoy on Myanmar Ms. Noeleen Heyzer in
September.
Observations
1. The
international community is divided on how to handle the situation in
Myanmar, a question also needs to ask is has it fully understands the
complexities of the situation or has it getting enough guidance from
Myanmar’s opposition groups, perhaps not, in such a situation it is
unlikely that the international community especially the Western power able
to formulate its policy on Myanmar.
2. Even
though the democratic opposition is united on one theme when it comes to
the shape of the country’s political structure in the post-junta era, which
is to transform Myanmar into a federal democratic union. However, they
differ in their approach to how to achieve that goal. They are deeply
divided based on their interest in the rights of one ethnic group or their
political interest.
3. With
the increasing violence in the country and the international community
losing its way of supporting Myanmar, one voice coming out from the
opposition groups in Myanmar would at least help the international
community to shape a consistent policy in terms of approach to resolving
the long-standing crisis in Myanmar.
4. A
gathering of all political, ethnic, and religious organizations (like
the Loya jirga organize in Afghanistan in the aftermath of
the US-led invasion in 2011) would be needed for Myanmar at this stage to
try to find common ground among the different stakeholders in Myanmar. The
gathering could also pave a way for formulating a constitution for Myanmar
which is acceptable to all the political, ethnic, and religious groups in
Myanmar.
5. With
the current disunity among the ranks of the Myanmar military it is likely
heading for another big fallout, like it was in 1963, (after the attack on
the student union building in Yangon), in 1976, (after an attempted coup by
a group of young military officers), 1992, (when then junta leader Saw
Maung was forcibly removed from his position), and in 2014, (when the
military intelligence led by former General Khin Nyunt was purged).
6. Min
Aung Hlaing has been able to keep the military united so far with the
promise of modernization, which will help it to continue its dominance over
Myanmar politics. However, it remained to be seen if he can continue to do
so with the Myanmar military currently fighting on several fronts and the
casualties are mounting, recruits are hard to find. The most important
point to consider is the use of air power is a sustainable solution. It
can, of course, demonstrate the Myanmar military’s strength and also help
to reduce the casualties, however, it comes with a price tag. Can the
regime afford to cope with the cost of the frequent use of its Russian and
Chinese-made fighter jets? Some military experts estimate that each sortie
by these aircraft could cost up to USD 200 000.
7. Also,
the regime’s grip on power could be loosened as inflation in the country,
which has drastically increased since the coup continues. According to the
UNOCHA’s report published on 31 October this year, ongoing conflict and
inflation in the costs of basic commodities continue to compromise the food
security of Myanmar people. An estimated 15.2 million people are now
severely and moderately food insecure.
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